With just seven games left in the 2025 NFL season, the Tennessee Titans are on pace to make history — not for winning, but for losing. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) projects them with a 29.4% chance of landing the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, putting them on track to become the first team since the Jacksonville Jaguars (2021-22) to hold back-to-back No. 1 selections. Their 1-8 record through Week 9 isn’t just bad — it’s historically bad for a franchise that just spent its last top pick on a quarterback who hasn’t just struggled, but collapsed.
The Titans’ Draft Nightmare
Cam Ward, the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft, has been a disaster. A 57.6% completion rate. Five touchdowns. Six interceptions. And a league-worst 38 sacks taken — that’s nearly four per game. He’s not just under pressure; he’s been buried. The Titans’ offensive line, already a concern, has become a sieve. And now, with their 2026 pick looming, they’re staring at another potential franchise-altering decision — only this time, they’re not sure they can trust their own evaluation.
It’s not just Ward. The Titans’ roster is a mess. Their strength of schedule remains tough (remaining schedule ranked 29th), and their biggest needs — quarterback, interior line, safety — are all gaping holes. They drafted Ward to fix the QB position. Instead, they’ve created a new one.
Who’s Next? Saints and Browns in the Mix
The New Orleans Saints, at 2-8, are projected second. They’ve been equally disastrous at quarterback, juggling Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. — both selected in the past two drafts — with little success. Their offense is stagnant. Their defense is tired. And like the Titans, they’re now looking at a top-five pick that could change everything.
The Cleveland Browns, at 2-7, sit third. They’ve been in rebuild mode since Deshaun Watson’s suspension, and their 2025 draft class hasn’t provided a spark. With a 2026 pick this high, they’re weighing whether to take another QB or trade down for a haul of picks — something the Titans are also seriously considering.
Meanwhile, the New York Jets hold two first-rounders after acquiring the Sauce Gardner trade pick. They’re not in the top three yet — but with a 4-5 record, they’re quietly climbing. If they win their next three, they could jump into the top five.
Why Trading Down Could Be Smarter
Here’s the twist: The Titans might not even want the No. 1 pick.
Music City Miracles reported on November 9, 2025, that Titans’ front office sources are openly discussing trade-down scenarios. Why? Because they know what happens when you draft a QB with the top pick and he fails. You’re stuck with a $30 million cap hit, a broken locker room, and no leverage. The Jaguars learned that with Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne — both talented, but neither turned the franchise around.
Instead, the Titans could trade the No. 1 pick to a team desperate for a franchise QB — say, the Browns or Saints — and get back multiple first-rounders, a proven veteran, or a future first. Tankathon.com’s live tracker shows teams like the Baltimore Ravens (on a bye in Week 7, 5-4 record) could be lurking, willing to move up if they believe a QB like Bo Nix or a new prospect is worth the cost.
The Draft Order Rules — It’s Not Just Record
Don’t be fooled: The draft order isn’t just about wins and losses. The NFL uses strength of schedule as the first tiebreaker. The Titans’ current strength of schedule (.586) is brutal — they’ve played tougher opponents than most teams with worse records. That’s why they’re projected ahead of teams like the Buffalo Bills (6-2), who are projected to pick 32nd — despite having more wins. The Bills’ schedule has been easier, and their remaining games are softer. Their 0.1% chance of landing a top-10 pick? That’s not a fluke. It’s math.
Playoff teams? They pick last, in reverse order of their postseason exit. Non-playoff teams? They go by record, then strength of schedule. And if two teams are tied? It goes to coin flip — yes, still a thing.
What’s Next? The Final Seven Games
With seven games left, everything’s still in play. The Titans face the Carolina Panthers (3-6), then the Indianapolis Colts (4-5), and a brutal stretch against the Houston Texans and Los Angeles Chargers. A win against Carolina could ease the pressure — but a loss? It could lock them into the top spot.
Meanwhile, the Saints play the Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, and Philadelphia Eagles — all winnable games. If they win two, they could overtake the Titans in the tiebreaker.
The draft isn’t decided yet. But the pressure is already mounting.
What This Means for the League
If the Titans keep the No. 1 pick, they’ll face one of the most scrutinized decisions in recent draft history. Do they take another QB — maybe a standout from Alabama or Oregon — and hope for a miracle? Or do they pivot to a defensive star like a dominant edge rusher or a lockdown cornerback, and wait another year?
This isn’t just about Tennessee. It’s about how teams rebuild. It’s about the cost of failure. And it’s about whether the NFL’s draft system — built on punishing the worst teams — still works when those teams keep drafting poorly.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are the Titans projected to pick first despite having a worse record than some teams?
The NFL uses strength of schedule as the primary tiebreaker when teams have identical records. The Titans’ remaining schedule is the 29th toughest in the league, meaning they’ve faced harder opponents than teams with similar records. Even if another team has a 2-7 record, if their schedule was easier, the Titans still rank higher in the draft order.
Has any team ever had back-to-back No. 1 picks before?
Yes — the Jacksonville Jaguars picked first in both 2021 (Trevor Lawrence) and 2022 (Travis Etienne). Neither pick led to sustained success, and both players have faced criticism for underperforming relative to expectations. The Titans could become the second franchise to do this — but with even greater pressure, given Cam Ward’s immediate struggles.
What are the Titans’ biggest needs for the 2026 draft?
According to NFL.com’s analysis, the Titans’ top needs are quarterback, interior offensive line, wide receiver, running back, and safety. But with Cam Ward’s performance, the QB position is now a minefield. Many insiders believe trading down to acquire multiple picks — especially for the offensive line and defense — could be wiser than drafting another QB with the top pick.
Why is the Buffalo Bills projected to pick 32nd despite being 6-2?
The Bills are projected to make the playoffs, which means they’ll pick last among non-playoff teams. Their 6-2 record and easy schedule (ranked 26th in remaining strength of schedule) suggest they’re a playoff lock. Playoff teams draft after non-playoff teams, so even with a strong record, they’ll pick 32nd — unless they win the Super Bowl, in which case they’d pick even lower.
Can the draft order change after Week 9?
Absolutely. Tankathon.com updates its draft order after every game, factoring in trades, wins, losses, and strength of schedule. The Saints, Browns, and even the Jets could move up if they win more games, while the Titans could fall if they win two of their next three. The projections are probabilities — not guarantees.
What’s the likelihood the Titans trade the No. 1 pick?
Multiple sources, including Music City Miracles, suggest the Titans are actively exploring trade options. Given Cam Ward’s struggles and the depth of talent in the 2026 QB class, a team like the Browns or Saints — desperate for a franchise quarterback — could offer two first-rounders and a future pick. The Titans’ front office is known for valuing draft capital, making a trade-down highly plausible.
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